Global Population Decline Bringing Changes to Ag Industry

Photo by Jim Barcus Photos

A global decline in population will have significant impacts for agriculture, which is currently able to overproduce food for the entire world. That was a key insight delivered at the 9th Ag Innovation Forum, presented by the Agricultural Business Council of Kansas City and the National Institute for Animal Agriculture.  Contrary to the widespread conventional fears of demographers only a decade or so ago – that global population growth would outstrip agriculture’s ability to feed it – keynote speaker Todd Thurman, founder and CEO of Swine Insights International, LLC, said, “If we continued to produce food at our current level going into 2062, we would still be providing 127% of the minimum calories per person.” He also commented that the ag industry is extremely proud of its accomplishment of being able to feed so many people. “It’s nothing short of remarkable, but changes are coming.”

Event opening keynoter Matt Olson, manager of Precision Ag Go-to-Market at John Deere, focused on the changing landscape in agriculture. He explained how historically farming relied on mechanical efficiency and individual expertise. Modern agriculture now integrates digital technology, automation and data, and data-driven decision making.  Farmers require seamless connections with agronomists, equipment and digital platforms, he said. But, he added, “An important component of innovation and development is that technology must have a value for the customer or user of technical advances.”

Value was the focus of the event, particularly for producers and farmers trying to get a handle on AI data and precision agriculture systems. In her keynote remarks closing the Ag Innovation Forum, Polly Ruhland, FTI Consulting’s senior managing director for Business Strategy & Transformation, Food & Agribusiness, stressed the importance of enabling, implementing, and managing innovation in all day-to-day operations of any business.

It’s one thing to have new technology at hand, Ruhland said, but companies and operations need to continue to develop strategies to improve supply chain resilience, durability, and innovation that optimize efficiency and enhance sustainability. She noted only 27% of U.S. farms or ranches used precision agriculture practices for managing crops or livestock, according to a 2023 USDA report.

Challenges For Ag Innovators

This year’s Ag Innovation program included three panel discussion exchanges, drilling down on the obstacles and opportunities of introducing high tech to traditional farming. Panel moderators – Kim Young, president, Animal Health Corridor; J.J. Jones, executive director, National Institute for Animal Agriculture; Paul Koffman, executive director Livestock Technology Solutions, Merck Animal Health – questioned the approach of some ag tech developers, financial specialists, and venture capitalists, noting that entrepreneurs and investors benefit when they appreciate the nuances of agricultural production economics.

Polly Ruhland identified a number of barriers dimming producers’ enthusiasm for ag innovation, which included high upfront adoption costs, unclear ROI and long production cycles. She also said farmers prefer time-proven methods. She implied there can be a lack of trust among farmers and producers regarding the effectiveness of high tech. Jarrod Westfall, executive chairman, ILS Beef, said, “Beef is unlike any other protein; investors and innovators don’t know about producer operations and systems.”  

Alexa McCuistion, innovation project manager for Dairy Farmers of America, said tech engineers and specialists must listen more closely to what producers actually want from a tech platform. Stop trying to make them adapt to your technology, she suggested, and see how your technology can be adapted to their needs, understanding and aptitude.

Westfahl added another insight about challenges tech developers face when working in the beef space. Entrepreneurs, AI pioneers and platform designers come from all backgrounds and work experience. They are confident their innovations and data accumulation breakthroughs are applicable to a variety of industries. Beef producers work in an environment of tight margins, Westfahl said, and their main concern is whether advanced agri-tech innovation will increase margins.

Experts participating in the AI and Agriculture discussion agreed AI can be a positive for farmers and livestock producers. “But research and development must be ongoing to ensure we are distributing good information,” said Ash Sweeting, vice president, Agscent. Toward that goal, he said AI engineers and innovators need to increase collaboration with universities and veterinarians. Daniel Foy, co-founder and CEO, AgriGates, posed the question AI developers need to ask themselves: “Are we solving problems or searching for them?”

Mayor Quinton Lucas provided an upbeat report on his administration’s awareness that agriculture has been the backbone of Kansas City’s history and development. He said the city enjoys active, productive relations with state and federal agriculture agencies and officials. “Everyone is on the same page.”