Polls Off the Mark in This Year’s Election

(L to R) Sara Wyant, Blake Hurst, Ron Seeber

A trio of savvy observers of agriculture policy and politics shared their takeaways from the 2020 Presidential and General Election during the Agricultural Business Council’s virtual November meeting. Ron Seeber, president and CEO of the Kansas Grain and Feed Association, the Kansas Ag Retailers Association, and Renew Kansas, concluded that from an agricultural perspective Kansas had a good night. As for the fortunes of the GOP, he said the state went from red to really red, as Republicans kept supermajorities in both the State House and Senate.  Tarkio, Missouri, farmer Blake Hurst, who also has served as president of Missouri Farm Bureau, called the elections in Missouri “a great night to be an incumbent.” 

Seeber noted “polls were way off the mark” in gaging the Kansas U.S. Senatorial race between Democrat Barbara Bollier and Republican Dr. Roger Marshall who garnered 53% of the vote. Sara Wyant, editor-in-chief of Agri-Pulse Communications was more critical of the pollsters, saying they were the biggest losers along with the media. “It is very discouraging,” she said, adding she is fearful of reportage in the future. 

Wyant offered several other observations that could bear weight in future election campaigns and outcomes. Total campaign spending topped $14 billion making it the most expensive election in U.S. history. She wondered if some of that money should have or could have been spent more wisely – on, say, people, institutions or organizations in need of a financial boost. Wyant raised a concern about how increasing out-of-state campaign contributions might influence voting that is not in the best interests of the citizens who actually live in a particular state.

On the subject of political donations, Wyant pointed out that women were “big donors” in this election cycle, and “politicians need to pay attention to females.”  Rural issues still matter, she said, in particularly rural healthcare and technology accessibility such as broadband availability. Noting that President Trump received more Hispanic votes than conventional campaign wisdom predicted, Wyant warned politicians that ethnic groups are no longer monolithic voting blocks to be taken for granted. 

All the speakers said they are wondering what the fallout will be from Democratic U.S. Congressman Colin Peterson’s defeat. As chair of the House Ag Committee, Peterson was considered a reliable legislator who worked both sides of the aisle on behalf of farmers and agriculture in general. Hurst wondered if the House Ag Committee would shift to the left.

Introduced as “the AgBizKC mystery guest,” Phil Karsting, who served as administrator of USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service in the Obama-Biden administration (and who has been a frequent speaker at AgBizKC events), enumerated a list of priorities that could be top of mind for President-elect Biden’s transition team.  The agenda includes creating an effective supply chain to deal with COVID-19 in rural areas; creating a reliable labor force; expanding broadband coverage for rural users; focusing science and ag practices on the enhancement of soil health. Karsting also emphasized there is a place for biofuels in the energy sector of the country’s economy.